Kategoriarkiv: politiske analyser

Mette Frederiksen – ny NATO generalsekretær?

Forsvarsalliancen NATO, som har 31 medlemslande, skal have ny generalsekretær efter norske Jens Stoltenberg. Rygterne svirrer i luften i både danske og udenlandske medier. Bliver statsminister Mette Frederiksen NATOs ny generalsekretær? Spekulationer om svaret på dette spørgsmål har floret med tiltagende styrke efter at statsministeren var på statsbesøg i USA i starten af juni.
Mette Frederiksen har hårdnakket benægtet, at hun er kandidat til posten. Kort efter hendes besøg hos Joe Biden i det Hvide Hus kom den britiske premierminister Rishi Sunak på besøg. Storbritannien har en kandidat, nemlig deres forsvarsminister, Ben Wallace. Han har ovenikøbet tidligere givet udtryk for interesse for stillingen. På en efterfølgende pressekonference blev Biden spurgt om det var på tide, at NATO får en britisk generalsekretær. Svaret var: ”måske”.
Men hvad siger Frankrig? De har tidligere givet udtryk for at den kommende generalsekretær skal komme fra et EU land og med det britiske Brexit er døren nok lukket til posten for briterne.
Nogle har givet udtryk for, at det er på tide med en kvindelig NATO generalsekretær og her har blandt andet EU’s Kommissionsformand, Ursula Von der Leyen været nævnt.
De 31 medlemslande skulle meget gerne være enige om en kandidat inden næste NATO-topmøde i Vilnius i Litauen den 11. juli.

Hvad er muligheden eller sandsynligheden for, at Mette Frederiksen bliver NATOs kommende generalsekretær? Dette spørgsmål stiller vi kortene. Oplægget læses fra bunden og op.

Hvad er muligheden eller sandsynligheden for, at Mette Frederiksen bliver NATOs kommende generalsekretær?

Det første kort markerer, hvad spørgsmålet drejer sig om og baggrunden. Det magtfulde spar es indikerer, at der skal findes en ny generalsekretær. Til den stilling er Mette Frederiksen særdeles kvalificeret, hvad ruder 10 fortæller. Der er ikke noget at udsætte på hendes faglighed og ansvarsfuldhed. Jobbet synes skræddersyet til hende. Kigger vi på kortet ved siden af, får vi et praj om, hvad som kunne være en forhindring for at hun bliver den foretrukne kandidat til posten. Den joviale, omsorgsfulde hjerter dame dukker op. Det kan vise to ting. Enten er der en anden kvindelig kandidat, som bliver foretrukket, eller at man i den nuværende særdeles anspændt situation med Rusland og Kina ønsker en mand på posten. Jeg hælder mest til den sidste mulighed, da man må gå ud fra, at en anden mere kvalificeret kvindelig kandidat ikke ville træde frem som hjerter dame, men snarere som ruder dame.

Spar 4 afslutter oplægget, som spar es indledte. Forsvarsalliancen NATO er symboliseret ved spar 4. Samtidigt er spar 4 svaret på spørgsmålet. Med et spørgsmål om NATO måtte man forvente spar på bordet. NATO er en forsvarsalliance og ikke en fredsbevægelse og i det perspektiv vælger jeg at se spar 4 som et positivt kort. Dog kan spar 4 indikere en forhaling af processen, men trods det er der sandsynlighed for, at Mette Frederiksen bliver den kommende NATO generalsekretær.
Hvis vi lægger sparværdierne sammen, får vi summen 5. Ruder 10, som viser Mette Frederiksens kvalifikationer og duelighed, lader sig dele af tallet 5. Tallene 5 og 10 er på bølgelængde med hinanden. Endnu et lod i den vægtskål, som betoner sandsynligheden for at hun får jobbet.

Viste kort: Bicycle, Aviary (Nicholas Matej), © The United States Playing Card Company

Vladimir and Volodomyr

It is interesting to note that the presidents of Russia (Vladimir Putin) and Ukraine (Volodomyr Zelensky) share the same first name, both of which are Slavic and carry similar meanings of “lord of the world” or “ruler of peace and people in the world”. The name has roots in ancient Slavic languages and has been used as a first name in several Slavic countries such as Russia, Ukraine, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia. It has also been used as a coronation name by several Russian rulers. While Vladimir is the most common form of the name in Russia, Volodomyr is the most common form in Ukraine. In Denmark, the name is known as Valdemar, as in King Valdemar the Great (1131-1182).
As the new year begins, many may be wondering about the developments in the ongoing war in Ukraine in 2023. This topic we will ask the cards.

How will the war in Ukraine develop in 2023?

The cards are read, as a “U” is written. It is striking how many cards of hearts appear – and yet not. The colour of hearts often appears when it comes to feelings for the fatherland – the national feeling. But the hearts also symbolize the blood, and a lot of blood has flowed in this war. The 8 of hearts, which opens the spread, shows the paradoxical and polarizing nature of the situation in Ukraine. The two Slavic peoples are in many ways brothers and sisters. There is a family relationship. Many Russians also have family ties in Ukraine. But the eights are powerful cards and, in this case, the 8 of hearts represents Russia and its desire to control Ukraine. The number eight dominates in this presentation. Notice that on one diagonal axis the sum 4+4 also gives 8. It is a conflict over territories and control. The Ukrainian people wisely defend and protect their territory (4 of diamonds) and are strengthened by their president (king of diamonds).

The 3 of hearts brings hope for a changed situation and less bloodshed. We must expect the war to end or enter another phase this year. The sum of the four cards on the table gives the 6 of diamonds. Incipient peace negotiations are hinted at. The first 8 of hearts ends with the last 4 of hearts. The war ends slowly, and Russia must withdraw from Ukraine. The turning point likely occurring in the second quarter of the year (4 of diamonds).

This raises a new question and requires an additional cardspread: How will the war in Ukraine come to an end?

How will the war in Ukraine come to an end?

The dramatic 9 of spades enters the spread. It forecasts a lightning strike in the war, which suddenly changes the situation significantly. Notice that the 4 of diamonds is in the same place as in the first spread. It testifies to a Ukraine that cannot be wiped out as a nation. The 9 of spades lies on the 8 of hearts (Russia). Russia will fight tooth and nail to keep the regions they have planned to conquer. The 4 of diamonds (Ukraine) is sandwiched between the 9 of spades and the ace of spades. We can therefore expect a few months of very violent and powerful battles and missile attacks (ace of spades).

Will Russia use tactical nukes? With the 9 of spades and the ace of spades, this concern will probably increase in the coming months, but my immediate assessment is a no. The number values of the spades decrease. However, the situation could develop in a very dangerous direction.

There is a desire in the Kremlin to assume a dominant global role in a new and changed world order (9 of spades + ace of spades = 10). But that will not happen (5 of clubs). On the other hand, the cards (9 of spades and ace of spades) are more indicative of a possible change in the power structure in the Kremlin. In any case, a weakening of the Russian president.

Where one of the diagonal axes in the first spread emphasized the number 8, the same diagonal axis in this spread emphasizes the number 9 (4+5). We can therefore expect a surprising development and change in the war. Important information about the war can no longer be suppressed in Russia (5 of clubs and Queen of clubs). A difficult time for Russia is looming on the horizon.

Overall, from a spread with a 9-number dominance (change and aggression) to an 8-number dominance, the situation in Ukraine is moving towards a stop to hostilities and a ceasefire. This process starts in the second quarter but taking a long time to fully implement (eights and fours).

Cards: Hermès, Paris 1948

Denmark and Peter the Great

Most Danes probably remember from the history books that the Russians liberated the Danish Island Bornholm from the German occupying power at the end of World War II. While the rest of the country celebrated the liberation on 5 May 1945, the people of Bornholm had to wait until 5 April 1946. At that time, there was also some concern about whether the Russians would leave the island again.

Bornholm is an attractive island. Not only for tourists, but also for those in power, as the impressive fortress Hammershus testifies.

Hammershus

Even the Russian Tsar Peter the Great visited the island in 1716. Because the Danish King Frederik the IV was allied with Peter the Great during the Great Nordic War (1700-1721).

Putin has previously expressed his admiration for Tsar Peter the Great. During a speech to mark the 350th anniversary of the Tsar’s birth, he compared himself to Peter the Great.

Now Bornholm has apparently received Russian attention again. On 26 and 27 September, the two gas pipelines Nord Stream 1 and 2 were exposed to sabotage by a foreign power. The area of the sabotage is quite close to Bornholm. Two explosions with the force of a large bomb apparently caused four large holes in the gas pipes, resulting in a gigantic gas leak. A deliberate sabotage, as the Danish Prime Minister subsequently stated. And not only that, but foreign drone activity has also been discovered over Norwegian oil and gas fields and Swedish nuclear power plants.

Where the West – apart from Poland and Ukraine – has been careful to place responsibility for the leak, Putin has called it an international terrorist act, orchestrated by the United States. And the Russians think they have the proof, as US President Biden stated before the invasion of Ukraine: “if Russia invades Ukraine, there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2, we will bring an end to it.”

Russia wanted the matter submitted to the UN Security Council and the Danish and Swedish governments wrote a joint letter to the Security Council before the meeting.

At the time of writing, Russia has annexed 4 areas in Ukraine and a few questions arise:

What is Putin´s and Russia’s next step in relation to the West and Ukraine?

Let’s see what the cards answer to the first question. The cards are read as a “U”.

With two deuces and starting with the 2 of spades, the tone is set. Putin – shown by the King of clubs – wants to sow discord (2 of spades) and create worries (2 of clubs) in the West. He is trying to destabilize (2+2=4) the West and create internal division. He hopes in this way to increase his influence and power (3 of clubs to the King of clubs). Basically, a desire to get more power (ace of spades) or as he himself expresses it – a new world order with a big and strong Russia. In this context, the King of clubs shows the desire to conquer. He wants to take back old Russian territories.

That brings us to the second question: Who is responsible for the sabotage against the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines?

Five cards have been chosen which are primarily read from left to right.

It immediately catches the eye that we have the entire family of clubs gathered in a fallen rank order. Notice the direction the faces are looking! The 8 of diamonds begins the presentation and shows the two gas pipes. The 10 of spades is placed between the Queen and the Jack. It is a gloomy card which symbolizes cold, darkness and criminal acts. It shows mysterious circumstances and hidden actions. Here we see the sabotage card. Interesting that this card can sometimes show larger bodies under water. It could indicate that a submarine has been involved. Note that the 10 of spades mirrors the King of clubs. He must be the one responsible for the action. It is quite thought-provoking that the King of clubs appears again. The Queen of clubs in the middle shows that several influential people have been involved in and are behind the orchestration of the event. It is a tight and closed inner circle that is behind it. The main person responsible is hiding (King of clubs) and with the mirror to the 10 of spades, it is doubtful whether it will ever be clarified who is behind it.

Since we named the King of clubs during the first presentation, it is tempting to do it again. But the King hides behind the mysterious 10 of spades, so you’ll probably never find the smoking gun.
Spar 6 is the bottom card of the card pile. We are at a crossroads. An era is over.

Cards: Hermès, Paris 1948

Bornholm og Peter den Store

De fleste husker nok fra historiebøgerne at russerne befriede Bornholm fra den tyske besættelsesmagt ved afslutningen af 2. verdenskrig. Mens resten af landet fejrede befrielsen 5. maj 1945, måtte bornholmerne vente til 5. april 1946. Dengang var der desuden en vis bekymring for om russerne ville forlade øen igen.
Bornholm er en attraktiv ø. Ikke kun for turister, men også for magthavere, hvad den imponerende fæstning Hammershus bevidner.

Udsigt fra Hammershus. Foto Per Jan

Ja, selv den russiske zar Peter den Store besøgte øen i 1716. For Frederik d. 4 var allieret med Peter den Store under den Store Nordiske krig (1700-1721).
Putin har tidligere udtalt sin beundring for zar Peter den Store. Under en tale for markeringen af 350 året for zarens fødsel sammenlignede han sig med Peter den Store.
Nu har Bornholm tilsyneladende fået russisk opmærksomhed igen. Den 26 og 27 september var de to gasledninger Nord Stream 1 og 2 udsat for sabotage af en fremmed magt. To eksplosioner med en kraft som en større bombe afstedkom tilsyneladende fire store huller i gasrørene med et gigantisk gasudslip til følge. En bevidst sabotage som den danske statsminister efterfølgende udtalte. Og ikke nok med det, der er også opdaget fremmed droneaktivitet over norske olie- og gasfelter og svenske atomkraftværker.
Hvor Vesten – bortset fra Polen og Ukraine – har været forsigtige med at placere ansvaret for lækagen, så har Putin kaldt det en international terrorhandling, orkestreret af USA. Og russerne mener de har beviset, idet den amerikanske præsident Biden inden invasionen af Ukraine udtalte: “hvis Rusland invaderer Ukraine, så er der ikke mere Nord Stream 2”.
Rusland ønskede sagen forelagt FN’s sikkerhedsråd og den danske og svenske regering skrev et fælles brev til sikkerhedsrådet inden mødet.
I skrivende stund har Rusland annekteret 4 områder i Ukraine og et par spørgsmål dukker op:
Hvad er Putins og Ruslands næste skridt i forhold til Vesten og Ukraine?

Lad os se, hvad kortene svarer på det første spørgsmål. Kortene læses som et ”U”.
Med to to’ere og startende med spar 2 er tonen slået an. Putin – vist ved klør konge – ønsker at så splid (spar 2) og skabe bekymringer (klør 2) i Vesten. Han forsøger at destabilisere (2+2=4) Vesten og skabe intern splittelse. Han håber på denne måde at kunne få sin indflydelse og magt til at vokse (klør 3 til klør konge). Grundlæggende et ønske om at få større magt (spar es) eller som han selv udtrykker det – en ny verdensorden med et stort og stærkt Rusland. I denne kontekst er klør konge, erobringslysten. Han ønsker at tilbagetage gamle russiske områder.
Det bringer os til det andet spørgsmål: Hvem er ansvarlig for sabotagen mod Nord Stream 1 og 2 gasrørene?

Her er valgt 5 kort som primært læses fra venstre mod højre.
Det falder straks i øjnene, at vi har hele klørfamilien samlet i en falden rangorden. Læg mærke til i hvilken retning ansigterne kigger! Ruder 8 indleder oplægget og viser de to gasrør. Mellem klør dame og klør knægt er spar 10 placeret. Det er et dystert kort, som symboliserer kulde, mørke og kriminelle handlinger. Det viser mystiske omstændigheder og skjulte handlinger. Vi ser her sabotagekortet. Interessant at dette kort undertiden kan vise større legemer under vand. Det kunne indikere at en ubåd har været involveret. Læg mærke til at spar 10 spejler sig over til klør konge. Klør konge må være den ansvarlige for handlingen. Det er ganske tankevækkende, at klør konge dukker op igen. Klør dame i midten viser at flere indflydelsesrige personer har været involveret i, og står bag organiseringen af, begivenheden. Det er en tæt og lukket inderkreds som står bag. Den hovedansvarlige gemmer sig (klør konge) og med spejlingen til spar 10 er det tvivlsomt om det nogensinde bliver opklaret, hvem som står bag.
Da vi under det første oplæg satte navn på klør konge er det fristende at gøre det igen. Men klør konge skjuler sig bag den hemmelighedsfulde spar 10, så man finder nok aldrig den rygende pistol.
Spar 6 er kortet i bunden af kortbunken. Vi står på en skillevej. En fase er forbi.

Benyttede kort: © Hermès, Paris 1948